An Analysis

So this is just basically my boredom getting to me and deciding to do an analysis of how things will be going sales wise for the rest of the year (mostly between 360 and PS3 anyway, Wii is too unpredictable). In June, PS3 dominated 360 in sales according to the June NPD. PS3 sold and easy 404k vs. 360's 270k or so. There are obvious reasons as to why PS3 sold so well during June, Metal Gear Solid 4. MGS4 was able to drive PS3 sales (not just in America) through the roof. And the re-introduction of the backwards compatible 80GB model definitely helped sales. However, sales could have been higher for PS3 during June had the new PS3 model not sold out everywhere pretty much on June 12th. As for 360, it was really having a hard time competing in June. Besides Ninja Gaiden 2, 360 really didn't have anything to big to compete against MGS4 and a new PS3 bundle (and even NG2 was no match). Now the July NPD hasn't come out yet but I'm willing to be 360 beat PS3 last month. The reason is simply because of the 360 price cut (or clearance sale) to 300 dollars. However, PS3 will also have some relatively strong sales this month because of carried over momentum from MGS4 and the new bundle being more available. However, PS3 might lose some sales do to the fact that they are replacing the 40GB model with an 80GB model next month. People might have held of on buying the 400 dollar PS3 last month due to the improved model coming out this month. If Sony had been smart, they would have gone the way of Microsoft and had a clearance sale on the 40GB and put them at 300 as well to compete with the 20GB 360 directly. It would have been a very smart move on their part. In all, i think July's NPD will end up with PS3 at about 290k, maybe less, and 360 at about 360k, maybe higher. As for this month this is really a neutrual month as far as i see. Neither system is bolstering big exclusives just a slew of multiplatforms. I think sales will die down for both systems however, as the 300 dollar 20GB 360 becomes unavailable and the new 350 dollar 60GB 360 comes in. I think it will be a close one but i think 360 will have a slight lead over PS3 in August. I would put it at about 250k for 360 and and 240k or so for PS3. September though things get intersesting (particularly for 360). There are rumors poping up that the 360 Arcade is getting dropped to 200 dollars early September. This is exactly what 360 needs in some sense. Because the 360 Arcade is the more family friendly model and in September 360 has the timed exclusive Rock Band 2 coming out, which is a big family friendly game. However, I dont think this will have too huge of an impact on 360 sales as the Arcade is the least bought of the 360 models. However, i think 360 will easily have a win over PS3 in september since PS3 has big games come September so i say 360 at 310k and PS3 at 230k. Though 360 may have won July, August and September by my bets, it is what it needed. Because 360 is gonna get hit hard by PS3 in October. 360 does have big name games Fallout 3 and Too Human coming out October but they will simply not be enough. Sony is gonna bring out big guns Motorstorm 2, SOCOM, possibly Rock Band 2 on PS3 at this point, Bioshock, Naruto, and of course, LittleBig Planet (an of course, Fallout 3 is also coming out on PS3 during this time). I think Sony might be pressured by the 360 price drop in September to drop the price of the 400 dollar PS3 to 350 or so in October. It would do big help. However, even without it, PS3 is going to have massive sales during this point. LittleBig Planet may go up next to GTA IV and MGS4 this year and be one of the highest selling PS3 games of the year. An SOCOM is gonna drive a lot of PS2 owner to upgrade to PS3. Also, it is very well possible that Home may launch during October. If Sony got their act together and did a lot of advertisment for Home and LittleBig Planet especially PS3 could have enough momentum to set a new sales record in October. So my guess for October, if Sony advertises like crazy, drops the price to 350 and launches Home 550k, maybe higher. Otherwise, i'd say around 400k and I'd put 360 at around 250k. November will be a very interesting month for both systems. They each have their rival shooters coming out, Gears of War 2 and Resistance 2. But first let me just get things out of the way and say Gears 2 will sell much more, maybe 2:1. I think if Sony didn't drop the price in October they definitely will this month. So with their biggest games at their disposal, I'd put 360 at around 390k and PS3 at around 390k as well. Its going to be a very difficult month to see who really comes out on top. 360's price drop in September will really come to help in December though for the Christmas season. Parents looking to buy their kids a video game system will see that 360 is the cheapest system, even cheaper than Wii and much more available, so they will make it their prime choice. However, PS3 will definitely get that price drop by this point. I'd say both systems will do about the same this month as well though its too hard to tell just how much that may be. Overall, I'd say that in 2008, PS3 and 360 sold equally in North America (360 possibly a slither more). However worldwide, PS3 will have dominated 360 this year. At the end of the year, I'd say Wii in first (duh) with around 37 million sold, 360 in second with around 23 million and PS3 in third with 19 million. I think that with a price cut next year though, and God of War 3 and Killzone 2, PS3 will overtake 360 worldwide by years end.